Attempting To Predict The 2026 Grammy Award Winners
The 2026 Grammys look very promising, but who's going to win in the "Big 4" categories?
I complain about awards season every year, but still find myself locked in to watch the ceremonies. However, the one award show I’ve become more invested in over the last several years is the Grammys. Despite its complex history, the Golden Gramophone remains a goal for many in the industry. And last Friday, the Recording Academy unveiled the nominees in all 95 categories.
Kendrick Lamar led the field with nine nominations, including nods for Song and Record of the Year, as well as Album of the Year. Lady Gaga is not far behind with seven more nominations to her name, and Bad Bunny rounds out the top three with six nods of his own. However, some of the biggest names in the world will be absent.
Taylor Swift’s Grammy dominance will be put on hold for a year as The Life of a Showgirl missed the eligibility period entirely. Just a year after making peace with the Academy following Dawn FM receiving no nominations in 2023, The Weeknd was once again shut out, this time for Hurry Up Tomorrow. Others like Morgan Wallen have decided to stop submitting their work to the Academy, while $ome $exy $ongs 4 U, the joint album between Drake and PARTYNEXTDOOR, also went scoreless in the Academy’s eyes.
But today, I want to take a look at the nominees in all four major categories. Of course, that means we’re breaking down the selections for Song and Record of the Year, as well as Best New Artist and Album of the Year. Despite being imperfect (as they always are), the nominees are ultimately still pretty fun this year, and I don’t have many big problems with them this time around. Let’s get into it.
Best New Artist:
Olivia Dean
KATSEYE
The Marias
Addison Rae
Sombr
Leon Thomas
Lola Young
Alex Warren
Olivia Dean has had an even bigger year than anyone could have predicted. Her sophomore effort, The Art of Loving, was an instant hit in the United States, thanks in part to the tremendous success of “Man I Need,” which has been climbing the Billboard Hot 100 every week since its release in August (currently sitting at #5). It also helps that the album is pretty great, with Dean’s approach to pop and smooth soul feeling very much like Amy Winehouse in execution. Her stock rose so much that she even joined Sabrina Carpenter on the road for the first nine dates of the Short ‘n Sweet tour’s latest leg. I’d love to see her win the award, and would not be surprised if she did, but I do think others in this category have had years that the Academy may view more favorably.
I’d been hopeful that KATSEYE, the girl group brought to the world via Netflix’s Pop Star Academy, would get a Best New Artist award, but I didn’t know how likely it would be. “Gabriela,” the Latin-tinged pop hit, has been their focus song for the last four months, and it has resulted in the sextet nabbing their first top 40 placement. Aside from their music, they had an unbelievably viral campaign with GAP in the middle of what turned into a minor skirmish between jean companies, with their choreography to Kelis’ “Milkshake” accruing nearly 200 million views on TikTok and YouTube alone (not counting the many reposts across outlets). As the group gets ready to embark on their first headlining tour together, they’ve had about as perfect a first year as it gets, culminating in a Grammy nomination for one of the biggest categories of the night. Like Olivia Dean, I would absolutely love to see them take the win.
Alex Warren, Lola Young, sombr, and Addison Rae all receiving nominations is a massive win for TikTok as a platform for music discovery. The four of them have been darlings on the app for years, with Warren and Rae being among the biggest creators the site had to offer prior to pivoting into music. The former has produced the biggest song of the year in “Ordinary,” while the latter produced a shockingly high-quality debut album that takes inspiration from some classic late-90s trip hop releases (namely Madonna’s Ray of Light and Massive Attack’s Mezzanine). Young’s track “Messy” went viral in 2024 for its playful video and nonsensical lyrics, and Sombr’s brand of 2010s indie rock revivalism has turned him into a top choice for background music on melodramatic video edits and SNL’s most recent musical guest.
Leon Thomas, the former teen actor known for his role as Andre on Victorious, has developed into a formidable songwriter since leaving Nickelodeon behind. He has credits on songs from artists like Drake, Bryson Tiller, and SZA, winning a Grammy for Best R&B Song for his contributions to the latter’s hit “Snooze.” I think he has a real chance at winning here, especially considering how recognizable “Mutt” has been this year.
The Marias, a band I love, feel like the odd group out this time around. They’re popular, but relative to their peers in this category, they feel a lot more niche. I don’t see them winning Best New Artist (though I’d welcome it wholeheartedly), but I could see Maria Zardoya & Co. coming back in a few years with an Album of the Year bid, as they are talented enough to make an album that can resonate with both the public and Recording Academy voters in a big way. Ultimately, if Olivia Dean doesn’t win the award outright, it would not be surprising to see Warren take it home, considering how big his 2025 has been.
Song/Record of the Year:
Lady Gaga - “Abracadabra”
Doechii - “Anxiety”
Rose & Bruno Mars - “APT.”
Bad Bunny - “DtMF”
HUNTR/X - “Golden”
Kendrick Lamar & SZA - “Luther”
Sabrina Carpenter - “Manchild”
Billie Eilish - “Wildflower”
Chappell Roan - “The Subway” (replaced “Golden” in Record of the Year)
There’s a tremendous amount of overlap between the Song and Record of the Year categories this year, so I am lumping them together. I am also having a hard time predicting where the Recording Academy will lean in its winners. First, the biggest shock out of the way: “Golden” receiving a nod for Song of the Year. “Golden,” the track performed by EJAE, REI AMI, and Audrey Nuna (and credited to HUNTR/X, the name of the fictional girl group that K-Pop Demon Hunters focuses on), is one of the best pop songs of 2025, with its catchy hook and soaring vocal highs. It’s so good that I believe it could have stood on its own, but it helps to be tied to the biggest film of the year. Still, I struggle to see a world where it wins the award it’s up for, though a win would be history-making.
As for the actual winner of Song of the Year, it feels like we have a few options. Sabrina Carpenter had a massive coming-out party in 2024, emerging as pop royalty thanks to the success of Short n’ Sweet and its inescapable mega-hit, “Espresso.” Both the album and the single led to her first two Grammy wins, and now she’s up for six more this time around, with Man’s Best Friend and “Manchild” just barely meeting the eligibility window for 2026 (as the former released only a day before the window closed). Her whirlwind last couple of years could reasonably end in another big night for her, and it would not be a left-field win.
Doubly so for Billie Eilish, who, despite going scoreless earlier this year, is among the most awarded young artists in music today. She already has two Song of the Year wins, for “Bad Guy” in 2020, and again for “What Was I Made For?” just last year. She missed out on the award earlier this year, as “Birds of a Feather” was a victim of the bomb that was Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us.” Without a song as undeniable as Lamar’s unfathomably popular battle ending (and lawsuit-inducing) diss track in the mix, Eilish certainly feels like someone who can stand alone as the first singer to win the award three times.
The last major possibility I can see is the aforementioned Kendrick Lamar continuing his run of Grammy dominance with back-to-back wins in this category. “Luther,” the GNX standout featuring former Top Dawg Entertainment labelmate SZA, has become one of Lamar’s most popular tracks to date. It is also Lamar’s strongest attempt at making a “song for the ladies,” which is something he has not always been the best at. Lamar leads the pack with nine nominations, and though I don’t think he’s due for another sweep, I think there’s a very good chance he wins more than he loses on the night, and “Luther” winning Song of the Year feels like the safest bet. I think he will also come away with Record of the Year, though I would love to see the Cocteau Twins-esque balladry of Chappell Roan’s “The Subway” take the win there.
Album of the Year
Bad Bunny - Debí Tirar Más Fotos
Justin Bieber - Swag
Sabrina Carpenter - Man’s Best Friend
Clipse - Let God Sort Em Out
Lady Gaga - Mayhem
Kendrick Lamar - GNX
Leon Thomas - Mutt
Tyler, the Creator - Chromakopia
Historically speaking, hip-hop isn’t a genre that’s looked to Grammy voters for approval. And why would it? It’s a genre and culture that was born from revolutionary, anti-establishment ideals, despite its immense commercialization over the last three decades. Still, even with hip-hop’s historical context, it’s hard to look at Album of the Year winners since Lauryn Hill’s win in 1999 and not feel as if there should have been many others. OutKast’s Speakerboxxx/The Love Below double disc is the most recent hip-hop album to win the big one at the Grammys, and even that was over 20 years ago now. But with three of the eight nominees this year being rap acts (the most in a single AOTY field in Grammy history) and a lack of Taylor Swift, it almost feels as if this is the genre’s “last chance” to take the win.
Clipse receiving an Album of the Year nomination was particularly surprising to me, as I anticipated the success of their comeback bid to end with a Best Rap Album look (and victory). But Let God Sort Em Out has somehow been even more successful than previously thought possible. Kendrick Lamar and Tyler, The Creator’s nods are much less surprising considering Lamar’s lengthy history and Tyler’s recent wins. I expect that the former will end the drought and become the first rapper to win Album of the Year in over two decades, but it would not be surprising if hip-hop got shut out once again.
If Lamar doesn’t win, all eyes will be on Lady Gaga. Mayhem, Gaga’s return to her dark pop roots, is an album that feels like a guaranteed win… had it been released in any other year within the last decade. Gaga has never won Album of the Year, a stat that almost feels unbelievable given how important she is to mainstream musical developments over the last quarter century.
Despite my belief that Lamar will win Album of the Year, I think seven of the eight nominees in this category have approximately the same chance at winning. Justin Bieber’s own comeback bid after the disastrous rollouts that came with Changes and Justice in 2020 and 2021 has been quite the success. Swag, Bieber’s foray into R&B, went over well, though I was much more lukewarm on it than some. Bad Bunny’s latest album is excellent, and the Puerto Rican superstar could very well become the first artist to win AOTY with an album entirely in Spanish. As previously mentioned, Sabrina Carpenter is pop royalty now and could be the heir apparent to Taylor Swift when it comes to wins in this particular category. Will Man’s Best Friend be her first? I wouldn’t count on it, but I would not bat an eye if she took the win.
Unfortunately, I do not feel nearly as optimistic about Leon Thomas’s chances as I do the rest. Of course, his work with SZA has already netted him a Grammy. With six nominations as a solo artist in 2026, he could end the night with some new hardware, likely for his hit single “Mutt.” I just don’t think he’s established enough on his own yet to think that any of his wins will come in the biggest category of the night.